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美联储政策意向将严重左右市场

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年02月22日 16:51:53
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(原)(标)(题)(:美)(联)(储)(政)(策)(意)(向)(将)(严)(重)(左)(右)(市)(场)(
美)(联)(储)(政)(策)(意)(向)(将)(严)(重)(左)(右)(市)(场)(
易)(宪)(容)(
尽)(管)(国)(内)(股)(市)(2月)(22日)(开)(红)(盘)(,而)(且)(涨)(势)(也)(不)(小)(,是)(近)(一)(个)(多)(月)(来)(难)(得)(的)(一)(个)(股)(市)(指)(数)(上)(涨)(这)(样)(快)(的)(交)(易)(日)(。但)(是)(对)(于)(国)(际)(市)(场)(来)(说)(,情)(况)(则)(不)(是)(那)(样)(好)(,无)(论)(是)(美)(国)(股)(市)(指)(数)(,还)(是)(香)(港)(股)(市)(,这)(几)(天)(都)(在)(大)(涨)(大)(跌)(,激)(烈)(地)(波)(动)(。比)(如)(,香)(港)(恒)(生)(指)(数)(,2月)(21日)(上)(升)(558点)(,到)(2月)(22日)(又)(下)(跌)(466点)(。何)(也)(?美)(联)(储)(的)(政)(策)(意)(向)(一)(直)(在)(左)(右)(市)(场)(,造)(成)(股)(市)(巨)(大)(震)(荡)(。
2月)(21日)(或)(星)(期)(三)(,美)(联)(储)(公)(布)(了)(1月)(议)(息)(会)(议)(记)(录)(,记)(录)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(公)(开)(市)(场)(委)(员)(会)(成)(员)(对)(今)(年)(经)(济)(前)(景)(甚)(至)(为)(乐)(观)(,大)(家)(都)(较)(2017年)(12月)(份)(调)(升)(了)(今)(年)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(预)(测)(,大)(部)(分)(成)(员)(同)(意)(较)(强)(劲)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,认)(为)(进)(一)(步)(加)(息)(是)(合)(适)(的)(,特)(别)(是)(今)(年)(核)(心)(个)(人)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)(升)(幅)(会)(有)(较)(明)(显)(加)(速)(。还)(有)(,差)(不)(多)(全)(部)(与)(会)(成)(员)(都)(同)(意)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(会)(处)(于)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(上)(,劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(继)(续)(强)(劲)(增)(长)(。多)(数)(成)(员)(相)(信)(,今)(年)(消)(费)(物)(价)(指)(数)((CPI)将)(从)(2017年)(底)(的)(1.5%水)(平)(进)(一)(步)(上)(扬)(,有)(望)(贴)(近)(2%通)(货)(膨)(胀)(目)(标)(。公)(开)(市)(场)(委)(员)(会)(成)(员)(承)(认)(他)(们)(可)(能)(低)(估)(了)(政)(府)(减)(税)(方)(案)(对)(经)(济)(及)(开)(支)(的)(影)(响)(,特)(别)(是)(目)(前)(仍)(难)(评)(估)(减)(税)(对)(工)(资)(增)(长)(有)(多)(大)(影)(响)(。大)(多)(数)(委)(员)(会)(成)(员)(预)(计)(,经)(济)(持)(续)(走)(强)(将)(会)(增)(加)(未)(来)(加)(息)(的)(机)(会)(。
所)(以)(,这)(次)(议)(息)(会)(议)(记)(录)(公)(布)(之)(后)(,美)(联)(储)(官)(员)(对)(经)(济)(与)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(前)(景)(乐)(观)(看)(法)(,被)(市)(场)(看)(作)(是)(美)(联)(储)(加)(快)(加)(息)(的)(宣)(言)(,市)(场)(忧)(虑)(美)(联)(储)(会)(加)(快)(加)(息)(的)(步)(伐)(。芝)(加)(哥)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)((CME)的)(利)(率)(期)(货)(工)(具)(显)(示)(,以)(每)(次)(加)(息)(四)(分)(一)(厘)(推)(算)(,目)(前)(市)(场)(预)(计)(美)(联)(储)(今)(年)(内)(加)(息)(3次)(和)(4次)(的)(概)(率)(均)(较)(前)(前)(一)(天)(上)(升)(,分)(R%约)(为)(37%和)(22%,而)(只)(加)(息)(两)(次)(的)(则)(下)(跌)(至)(不)(足)(27%。
受)(美)(联)(储)(会)(议)(记)(录)(的)(消)(息)(影)(响)(,美)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(利)(率)(涨)(至)(2.951厘)(,为)(2014年)(1月)(9日)(以)(来)(最)(高)(;同)(时)(,美)(元)(汇)(率)(指)(数)(也)(反)(复)(上)(扬)(,美)(元)(汇)(率)(指)(数)(连)(升)(4个)(交)(易)(日)(,重)(越)(90大)(关)(。美)(国)(股)(市)(对)(此)(消)(息)(反)(应)(开)(始)(是)(正)(面)(的)(,会)(议)(记)(录)(公)(布)(后)(开)(始)(的)(一)(个)(小)(时)(,美)(国)(道)(琼)(斯)(工)(业)(平)(均)(指)(数)(升)(幅)(扩)(大)(至)(303点)(,但)(之)(后)(忽)(然)(来)(个)(高)(台)(跳)(水)(,收)(市)(倒)(跌)(167点)(,因)(为)(市)(场)(好)(似)(突)(然)(发)(现)(,如)(果)(经)(济)(好)(,意)(味)(着)(加)(息)(的)(次)(数)(会)(增)(加)(。如)(果)(这)(样)(,当)(然)(对)(股)(市)(会)(相)(当)(不)(利)(。
后)(来)(,有)(美)(联)(储)(官)(员)(随)(即)(淡)(化)(今)(年)(要)(大)(幅)(加)(息)(的)(预)(期)(,美)(国)(国)(债)(的)(利)(息)(应)(声)(回)(落)(,美)(元)(汇)(率)(又)(回)(到)(90以)(下)(的)(水)(平)(,而)(美)(国)(股)(市)(则)(在)(2月)(22日)(急)(促)(反)(弹)(。如)(亚)(特)(兰)(大)(联)(储)(银)(行)(总)(裁)(博)(斯)(蒂)(克)((RaphaelBostic)认)(为)(,在)(美)(国)(经)(济)(持)(续)(向)(好)(与)(银)(行)(业)(憧)(憬)(加)(息)(利)(好)(业)(务)(情)(况)(下)(,美)(联)(储)(应)(该)(小)(心)(做)(出)(加)(息)(lz定)(。他)(表)(示)(,根)(据)(该)(行)(经)(济)(预)(测)(模)(型)(,美)(国)(首)(季)(GDP增)(长)(预)(期)(为)(3.2%,远)(高)(于)(2017年)(首)(季)(,因)(而)(显)(示)(情)(况)(持)(续)(向)(好)(。之)(后)(,美)(国)(道)(琼)(斯)(工)(业)(平)(均)(指)(数)(收)(市)(报)(24962点)(,上)(升)(164点)(或)(0.66%。市)(场)(又)(回)(复)(了)(上)(升)(之)(势)(。
也)(就)(是)(说)(,就)(当)(前)(的)(股)(市)(形)(势)(来)(看)(,市)(场)(是)(存)(在)(较)(大)(分)(歧)(的)(。因)(为)(,无)(论)(美)(国)(股)(市)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(了)(10年)(,股)(市)(指)(数)(涨)(到)(了)(一)(个)(以)(往)(根)(本)(无)(法)(想)(象)(的)(高)(峰)(,还)(是)(美)(联)(储)(新)(的)(主)(席)(上)(任)(,未)(来)(美)(联)(储)(会)(推)(什)(么)(样)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,以)(及)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(减)(税)(政)(策)(会)(对)(市)(场)(及)(经)(济)(产)(生)(多)(大)(的)(影)(响)(,市)(场)(都)(认)(为)(目)(前)(正)(处)(于)(一)(个)(形)(势)(大)(变)(局)(的)(时)(代)(。对)(于)(这)(个)(大)(变)(局)(会)(如)(何)(变)(化)(,会)(走)(向)(哪)(里)(,绝)(大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(都)(是)(心)(中)(无)(底)(的)(,未)(来)(市)(场)(面)(对)(着)(一)(系)(列)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。
在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,对)(于)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,只)(能)(以)(美)(联)(储)(的)(政)(策)(意)(向)(为)(风)(向)(标)(。而)(这)(个)(风)(向)(标)(解)(读)(不)(同)(的)(,股)(市)(的)(波)(动)(就)(不)(一)(样)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,面)(对)(当)(前)(市)(场)(的)(大)(变)(局)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(分)(歧)(非)(常)(巨)(大)(,无)(论)(是)(发)(布)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(,还)(是)(美)(联)(储)(向)(市)(场)(传)(达)(的)(政)(策)(信)(息)(,都)(会)(被)(不)(同)(的)(投)(资)(者)(做)(出)(不)(同)(的)(解)(读)(,并)(以)(此)(为)(藉)(口)(成)(为)(发)(动)(多)(空)(攻)(击)(的)(理)(由)(,这)(样)(股)(市)(大)(震)(荡)(自)(然)(不)(可)(避)(免)(。特)(别)(是)(有)(程)(式)(化)(交)(易)(等)(工)(具)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(,更)(是)(把)(股)(市)(的)(震)(荡)(推)(向)(极)(端)(。在)(这)(样)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,投)(资)(者)(能)(够)(做)(当)(然)(是)(以)(不)(变)(应)(成)(变)(,否)(则)(,将)(面)(临)(着)(巨)(大)(的)(风)(险)(。
分)(赴)(向)(哪)(里)(,股)(市)(就)(会)(波)(动)(哪)(里)(。所)(以)(,放)(ZY)(美)(股)(,不)(Z-)(}d )(怾)(xd诨)(?)(oQ2局)(向)(市)(X4Pxq)(T的)(政)(策)(Y5)(br />息)(,都)(g被)(好)(淡)(h)(方)(用)(作)(藉)(口)(v|R展)(鎄狻)(T谌)(魏)(我)(环)(饺)(〉?(拥)(剐)(?)(*R馇)(埃)(嘣墒)(胁)(|k)(出)(s鋳渢)(悍)(较)(颍)(嚅ㄒ豢)(梢)(钥)(隙)(ǖ氖)(遣)("g招)(?)(獗)(卮)(笤)(觯)(噼y?(钦)(吒)(闱夑)(!所)(`Q)(_pP)(7祷)(厮)(押)(惝嗤榭)(锤)(懔嘣)(鹑)(伪)(嗉)(?裹)(br />声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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